While Jules Verne was pretty good at predicting the future, I usually dismiss modern-day prognosticators. They don’t seem to get it right when it comes to politics, stocks, or bestsellers. On the other hand, since this is my blog—and I’m not going to write about politics, stocks, or bestsellers—what the hell. We live in an age of technological wonders. It seems that breakthroughs in the field of digital electronics occur every selling season like clockwork. I have now discovered that the television I currently have hooked up to cable at my home will shortly need another electronic gizmo to work. All of this has got me thinking about where the book publishing business will be in about twenty years. I use the period of twenty years because that usually connotes the space between generations.

As a baby boomer, I grew up reading books printed on paper—not unlike the last hundreds of generations before me. However, I now find myself living in the “digital” age—an age in which I keep missing all those seminars on “Publishing in the Digital Age.” I know it’s coming, but I don’t think it’s just around the corner. Let me tell you why.

When I was growing up, I used to listen to AM stations—that is, until FM started playing rock ’n roll (in stereo, no less!). From there, it was on to 8-track players (and some really interesting wardrobe choices) and then cassette tapes. This was followed by CDs, which were followed by  MP3 players, iPods and downloads—and this was all happening just in my car. And you wonder why the music business is in such a mess.

As my generation grew up, music was such an integral part of our lives that we were always looking for that perfect sound. If the equipment we were listening to became obsolete in a few years—or until the car’s lease was up—that was perfectly okay; we’d accept the change and move on. As a generation, we were trained to accept change in order to keep up with the latest musical-producing device.

Yet as much as our musical equipment changed, books remained an unchanged product, allowing only for the development of “books-on-tape.” My generation and then Generation X simply did not have any other choices to select from. Today, however, things have changed. We have e-books, downloads, and handheld reading devices; none of which seem to excite my generation and the X-ers. Of course, paying $299 to $399 for a device that needs to be constantly recharged, is easily broken, lost, or stolen also doesn’t seem like a big plus. The fact is that the generations not raised on GameBoy is not likely to give up their paper books now or perhaps even later—unless the technology begins to encompass a whole lot more than books and drops its price to below $99.

On the other hand, the younger generation out there who were raised on electronic games may absolutely embrace these advancements. However, since they still need to graduate high school and get jobs (good luck to them.), we will not see any dramatic acceptance of these products for at least the next ten years. I therefore predict that our use of traditional paperbound books will continue to remain steady for as long as the Boomers and the Gen X-ers continue to buy books.

What will change dramatically over the next few years, in my opinion, is how that “paper” book will be produced and delivered to its readers. This will change the publishing industry as we know it and impact greatly on retailers of all printed matter. Am I starting to sound like Nostradamus yet? With the development of digital printing a few years back, the printing industry went through a great deal of change and upheaval trying to keep up with the new emerging technologies. Today, we have POD (print-on-demand) presses that can produce one book at a time. This has produced an enormous amount of new books to become available (if not actually sold) online. And as this technology is refined, the machines producing the books will become smaller and more sophisticated. What we will have is a single machine capable of printing and collating the interior text in black and white; printing a color cover; and binding the interior to the cover to produce one commercial-looking, single bound paperback. And that future is already here in the form of the Espresso Book Machine, a complete one-stop printer capable of storing thousands of titles in its memory bank—and that will eventually change everything.

While the bookstore still has its share of bestsellers and perennial backlist titles on its shelves, it will also have several machines capable of printing almost every book ever published in any language requested. Should any of the bookstores’ shelved stock sell out, the manager simply prints out what’s ever needed. Libraries will have the machines available for its patrons--as will supermarkets, health food stores, drug stores, toy shops, or any other retailers that cater to any niche market(s). Publishers themselves will have these machines to produce review copies whenever needed.

The economic model for publishers should improve as well. As a book is electronically purchased, a percentage will be paid directly into a publisher’s and/or author’s account. While this amount may be smaller than the traditional revenue made, the savings for the publishers will more than offset the smaller profit.  No longer will publishers have to spend money maintaining stocked inventory, warehousing, or shipping. Nor will they have to contend with returns, damaged books, or overstocks. The system of distribution will become completely electronic. No book will ever be out of stock. For the first time, smaller independent publishers will be able to compete with mega-publishers on an even playing fair.

And of course, as with the coming of the automobile and its impact on the horse carriage trade, there will be changes in the industry that rely on the old book publishing model. The need for distributors and wholesalers will be greatly reduced, as will the need for traditional book printers. Online booksellers will take a beating—unless Amazon chooses to buy Borders (but we’ll leave that for a future blog). And as these industries may devolve or evolve, new ones will emerge to meet the new economic models to come.

The fact is we are definitely living in a time of great change. However, we still have a long way to go to get to that future. And, of course, I could always be wrong. But hey, that’s what happens when you make predictions.  

Posted by: Rudy Shur

The first time I had met Len Riggio—well, maybe not so much met him as heard him—was in the early 1970s. I was the New York City field rep for the William C. Brown Publishing Company, a college textbook publisher. Len was the owner of the off-campus NYU bookstore. One of my tasks was to visit college bookstores and learn which titles had been adopted for various courses. To do this, I needed to schmooze store managers, and ask nicely if I could look through the textbooks on the store shelves. The books were usually arranged by department and course number so they were relatively easy to identify. As I walked into this particular bookstore, I noticed that there were no customers. I also noticed there were no salespeople. I was in downtown Manhattan in the middle of the afternoon, and the bookstore was devoid of people.

“Hello! Anyone here?” I called out.  No response. I proceeded to the back of the store. “Hello! Is anybody home? . . .” Nothing. I walked back to the middle of the store thinking this just wasn’t right. As I was about to repeat my hello, I heard some muffled noises coming from behind a large closed door to my right. I began thinking, Great, either I’ve just walked into a robbery in process or I’m on Candid Camera (yesterday’s version of Punked). Hoping for a possible shot on TV, I slowly opened the door . . . and was greeted with a barrage of expletives that floated up from a stairwell. Obviously something was going on in the basement below. As I called down to ask if the store was open, a man holding a big box of books appeared and began making his way up the stairs. “Look kid” (I was actually a kid then), he said, “we just had a flood in the basement, and I’m a little busy.” I told him I was with a publisher and asked if I could help. He handed over the box of books, pointed to a space against the wall, and told me to put it there. Then he turned immediately and headed back downstairs.

I took off my jacket, and waited at the top of the stairs for the guy to reappear. As I waited, all I could hear was the angry voice of some man barking out orders amidst a sea of colorful curses. As I was handed the second box, I asked the guy, “Who is that down there?” “That’s the owner,” he replied, “and I don’t think he’s too happy.” I stayed there for several more trips, and as I waited, I could hear the guy who was lugging the boxes repeatedly say to the owner, “Lenny. Relax!” Needless to say, Lenny did not relax.

Some time later, I learned that that bookstore had closed, and I figured I was never going to have the chance to meet Lenny. Shortly after, the original Barnes & Noble bookstore declared bankruptcy and all of its assets were up for auction. A Publishers Weekly article spelled out who had bought what: The name and titles of the Barnes & Noble publishing house had been purchased by Harper & Row, and the bookstore itself was bought by a group that was headed by a Mr. Leonard Riggio, the former owner of—you guessed it—the off-campus NYU bookstore. And the rest is history.

So what’s the point? After facing difficulties and setbacks in his own bookshop, Len Riggio took a bankrupt business and turned it into this country’s largest bookstore chain. The flood in his basement didn’t stop him, nor did the eventual closing of that bookstore. He had the vision, the energy, the experience, and the guts to do it again—and this time he did it right. So what does this have to do with independents in the book business? Plenty.

Over the years, I’ve heard indie publishers and bookstore owners actually admit that they love books, but hate marketing them. And they wonder why large corporate giants continue to beat their brains in. If independents intend to be successful in this business, they not only have to love books, they have to learn to embrace every aspect of marketing. If one strategy doesn’t work, try another. Learn from both your successes and failures. If you want to have a viable operation, look at what other successful entrepreneurs do--learn from them. Energy that is directed towards the right vision can make it happen, just like it happened for Len.

As a book publisher, I can’t tell you how many of my authors have had signings at bookstores that turned out to be disasters--embarrassments for them, and a loss of potential sales for the bookstores. Yes, putting up a poster telling customers about an upcoming book signing is a good start, but for most bookstores, it’s also the only marketing they will do. Typically, bookstore owners are thinking “Hey, shouldn’t marketing be the job of the publisher and author?” Perhaps it is, but shouldn’t driving more customers into the store be an owner’s top priority? Do you think it’s a coincidence that the most successful indie bookstores also have the biggest turnouts for a majority of their book signings? And not just for big-name authors! Even their lesser-known authors draw sizeable crowds. Again, with proper marketing, they make it happen--all it takes is energy and vision.

Now I don’t claim to be the smartest business person in the book business, but as an independent publisher, I have always tried to learn from those who failed (avoiding the pitfalls that brought them down) and from those who have succeeded (borrowing their good ideas). As an indie in the book industry, if you intend to stay in business during today’s down-turned economy, you should always remember that no matter how flooded your basement gets, you must never allow it to drown your dreams.

Posted by: Rudy Shur

Warning — May Cause Nightmares.

Book industry numbers are cold-sweat terrifying for publishers and authors alike. According to Nielsen Bookscan, 3,000 books are published per day in the United States alone (as reported on www.deadlyprose.com). ForeWord can review at most a few thousand per year. Publishers report an average of 2,100 submissions per year, totaling 132 million submissions. Just under one percent are accepted for publication.

In the face of these staggering odds, is there any hope for authors and publishers?

The Majority of Books Sell Fewer than 99 Copies
Of the 1.2 million titles tracked by Bookscan in 2006, only 2.1% sold more than 5,000 books, 16.6% sold fewer than 1,000, and a terrifying 79.6% sold fewer than 99 copies. The 99 copies are no doubt the reason only one percent of authors’ submissions make it through the arduous publisher-review process.

This is all the stuff of wake-in-a-sweat nightmares: 63,000 publishers vie for readers with their wonderful author lists (according to Dan Poynter’s ParaPublishing.com).

The terror is no less for authors: only six conglomerate publishers publish fewer and fewer debut authors and less and less fiction. Then the real horror story commences as a book makes it into distribution. The bestseller dreams of authors and publishers are splashed with the cold water of real numbers.

Negative or Naïve?
Am I being negative or naïve? Perhaps both. The naïve part of the equation is my firm belief there are ways to break through these barriers to success. Kunati  was founded with this goal in mind, and has proven it can work.

Heather Shaw touched on one important element of the success formula in her insightful Blog on book covers. When competing with 1.2 million titles, first impressions (impact) and credibility are vital. These are the twin functions of a cover.

What Works for Selling Books?
Websites, book videos and novel trailers, author critique groups, social marketing, author Blog tours, old-fashioned but still-important book signings, and publicity are the proven methods for marketing. I hope to focus on these in future Publisher Insider Blogs in a more how-to format.

Innovation begins with a study of what works. Read every Blog in the ForeWord archive and every article in the magazine. Visit the sites of successful publishers—the innovative publishers who lead with new ideas such as novel trailers, Blog touring, online publicity. (hint, hint, Kunati). Read every page on sites from innovative publishers.

Getting Noticed is the Primary Goal
My message is simple. With these horrifying numbers, being noticed is almost the only thing that matters—for both authors and publishers. Many authors are creative, even brilliant, yet if they can’t market their “author brand” no publisher is interested.

The publisher faces an epic battle analogous to a Tolkien quest to get attention in the marketplace. The publisher must build the authors’ brands, edit the manuscripts for the market, arrange distribution, obtain reviews from magazines (which choose from millions), then sell to wholesalers, retailers and finally readers.

The Retailer
How does a retailer choose which titles to carry? The average retailer chooses to stock a few thousand copies per year, far less than 1% of the titles available—similar in numbers to the reviews published annually by ForeWord. That’s not a coincidence.

Publisher and author success relies on buzz, which is a combination of review exposure, social networking, book cover designs, author activities such as Blogs and signings (the two types of touring, virtual and tangible). The last part of the equation is wonderful content.

Innovative Authors Look Beyond Good Prose
With the knowledge that more than 80% of books published are going to fail, how can a publisher risk taking on new, unproven property? How can an author convince a publisher to take them on?

There are certain musts in an author presentation, and in our evaluation of the author:
• Is the query well-written? An author who doesn’t polish a query until it becomes the choicest morsel of prose ever written has no chance at all.
• Is the idea compelling? Yes, tell us the comparables (claims of being the next Da Vinci Code or Harry Potter are overused though!), but what’s the UNIQUE aspect—the high concept. No matter how small, there must be one.
• The sample chapters? Same story. If those three chapters aren’t pure masterpiece, the editor will tend to move on.
• Did they read the submission guidelines on the website? One mistake here disqualifies most authors. Take the time to study your prospective publisher.

Innovative Publishers Look Beyond Agents
Unlike many publishers, Kunati accepts un-agented submissions by email. How can we do this, given the awful odds against a new author’s success?

We certainly acquire agented manuscripts, but the creative-process required for an author to pitch a manuscript is clearest sign of ambition, drive and creativity. We believe in the un-agented submission. It allows the author to prove they can develop their author “brand.” Other things we look for:
• Is the author realistic about his/her prospects?
• Is the author able to work with the publisher at making the book as marketable as possible? Considering the numbers, this might be the most important of all.
• These days, we also look for authors who are savvy about online marketing, blogging, MySpace and social marketing, and who are not shy about public appearances. Some writers are notoriously shy, preferring to hide behind their keyboard.

Successfully Marketing Books Require a Publisher-Author Partnership.
The truth is, only bestselling authors receive major publishing support in marketing. A publisher’s first duty is to market to the trade. That’s a big job. Stores stock thousands out of the millions of titles. Just getting the books into distribution is monumental. Trade ads, reviews, advance reading copies, publicity, great book covers, strong web presence, book trailers—these all help. Even the big conglomerate publishers typically stop there. There’s not much in the way of marketing dollars left for end-reader marketing for 90% of authors. Hand-selling from retailers and buzz becomes the key to success.

Hand-selling and Buzz
Book selling is still very much a word-of-mouth business. Readers don’t always respond to what we think they will. Social marketing, in all its aspects, it the true secret of any book’s success. Books can become bestsellers when just one influential person finds it and starts buzzing (Oprah will do.)  Social marketing involves building a broad network of friends.

Ultimately, the true secret to publishing success is a strong partnership between authors and publishers, working together to create buzz. This is a big topic, and the subject of next week’s Blog.

Posted by: Derek Armstrong

Fifteen years ago, Barnes & Noble revolutionized book-selling with the creation of its superstores, of which there are now more than 600 nationwide. Customers, even those in Gotham City, were agog! Soaring spaces, couches, coffee, confections at the checkout counter. You can lie on the floor, troll 100,000 titles, drink a latte… how good does life get? (Granted, superstores were modeled on leading independent stores like The Tattered Cover in Denver. And why not?)

Unfortunately, magnificent as the stores are, the total sale of books in the US continues its decade-long stagnation. Something had to give, and smaller independent bookstores started to drop like flies. This situation went public with the release of Warner Brothers’ picture “You’ve Got Mail” in which Tom Hanks played some version of L,S, or E, and the ever adorable Meg Ryan personified the beleaguered bookstore owner, who then sleeps with the enemy.

For a decade, the horizon for independent stores was increasingly dark, but over the last few years, a new day seems to be dawning. Strangely enough, this has at first blush nothing to do with the publishing industry itself. Rather, melting ice caps, mad cow’s disease, fatal pharmaceuticals, predation by box stores, have curiously combined to create a growing revolution in social attitudes.

Back to the Sixties, to the whole earth catalogue to “The Greening of America.” It now appears that “small,” “independent,” “sustainable,” “LOCAL” are becoming watchwords of a increasingly worried citizenry looking for a more stable and safer world for themselves and especially their children and grandchildren. As the amazing CEO of Stonybrook farms, Gary Hirschberg (Hirschberg charmingly means “cherry mountain” in German) pointed out in his solution-rich presentation about our environmental problems at the winter conference of the American Bookseller Association (independent stores) last week in Louisville, KY (gasp, breathe)… 2050 is here! Our kids and grandkids are going to be there, and we have both the responsibility and the means to make sure the earth returns to being happy and habitable half way through this century.

And, according to Avin Domnitz, CEO of the ABA, this presents an enormous opportunity for independent bookstores to be leaders in their communities! To gather together the local drug store, hardware store, grocery, et. al. into a unified voice for a civil and sustainable way of life. Avin was equally great, a spontaneous speech redolent of the campaign trail, which had listeners at the edge of their seats.

Posted by: Jim Lichtenberg