While Jules Verne was pretty good at predicting the future, I usually dismiss modern-day prognosticators. They don’t seem to get it right when it comes to politics, stocks, or bestsellers. On the other hand, since this is my blog—and I’m not going to write about politics, stocks, or bestsellers—what the hell. We live in an age of technological wonders. It seems that breakthroughs in the field of digital electronics occur every selling season like clockwork. I have now discovered that the television I currently have hooked up to cable at my home will shortly need another electronic gizmo to work. All of this has got me thinking about where the book publishing business will be in about twenty years. I use the period of twenty years because that usually connotes the space between generations.

As a baby boomer, I grew up reading books printed on paper—not unlike the last hundreds of generations before me. However, I now find myself living in the “digital” age—an age in which I keep missing all those seminars on “Publishing in the Digital Age.” I know it’s coming, but I don’t think it’s just around the corner. Let me tell you why.

When I was growing up, I used to listen to AM stations—that is, until FM started playing rock ’n roll (in stereo, no less!). From there, it was on to 8-track players (and some really interesting wardrobe choices) and then cassette tapes. This was followed by CDs, which were followed by  MP3 players, iPods and downloads—and this was all happening just in my car. And you wonder why the music business is in such a mess.

As my generation grew up, music was such an integral part of our lives that we were always looking for that perfect sound. If the equipment we were listening to became obsolete in a few years—or until the car’s lease was up—that was perfectly okay; we’d accept the change and move on. As a generation, we were trained to accept change in order to keep up with the latest musical-producing device.

Yet as much as our musical equipment changed, books remained an unchanged product, allowing only for the development of “books-on-tape.” My generation and then Generation X simply did not have any other choices to select from. Today, however, things have changed. We have e-books, downloads, and handheld reading devices; none of which seem to excite my generation and the X-ers. Of course, paying $299 to $399 for a device that needs to be constantly recharged, is easily broken, lost, or stolen also doesn’t seem like a big plus. The fact is that the generations not raised on GameBoy is not likely to give up their paper books now or perhaps even later—unless the technology begins to encompass a whole lot more than books and drops its price to below $99.

On the other hand, the younger generation out there who were raised on electronic games may absolutely embrace these advancements. However, since they still need to graduate high school and get jobs (good luck to them.), we will not see any dramatic acceptance of these products for at least the next ten years. I therefore predict that our use of traditional paperbound books will continue to remain steady for as long as the Boomers and the Gen X-ers continue to buy books.

What will change dramatically over the next few years, in my opinion, is how that “paper” book will be produced and delivered to its readers. This will change the publishing industry as we know it and impact greatly on retailers of all printed matter. Am I starting to sound like Nostradamus yet? With the development of digital printing a few years back, the printing industry went through a great deal of change and upheaval trying to keep up with the new emerging technologies. Today, we have POD (print-on-demand) presses that can produce one book at a time. This has produced an enormous amount of new books to become available (if not actually sold) online. And as this technology is refined, the machines producing the books will become smaller and more sophisticated. What we will have is a single machine capable of printing and collating the interior text in black and white; printing a color cover; and binding the interior to the cover to produce one commercial-looking, single bound paperback. And that future is already here in the form of the Espresso Book Machine, a complete one-stop printer capable of storing thousands of titles in its memory bank—and that will eventually change everything.

While the bookstore still has its share of bestsellers and perennial backlist titles on its shelves, it will also have several machines capable of printing almost every book ever published in any language requested. Should any of the bookstores’ shelved stock sell out, the manager simply prints out what’s ever needed. Libraries will have the machines available for its patrons--as will supermarkets, health food stores, drug stores, toy shops, or any other retailers that cater to any niche market(s). Publishers themselves will have these machines to produce review copies whenever needed.

The economic model for publishers should improve as well. As a book is electronically purchased, a percentage will be paid directly into a publisher’s and/or author’s account. While this amount may be smaller than the traditional revenue made, the savings for the publishers will more than offset the smaller profit.  No longer will publishers have to spend money maintaining stocked inventory, warehousing, or shipping. Nor will they have to contend with returns, damaged books, or overstocks. The system of distribution will become completely electronic. No book will ever be out of stock. For the first time, smaller independent publishers will be able to compete with mega-publishers on an even playing fair.

And of course, as with the coming of the automobile and its impact on the horse carriage trade, there will be changes in the industry that rely on the old book publishing model. The need for distributors and wholesalers will be greatly reduced, as will the need for traditional book printers. Online booksellers will take a beating—unless Amazon chooses to buy Borders (but we’ll leave that for a future blog). And as these industries may devolve or evolve, new ones will emerge to meet the new economic models to come.

The fact is we are definitely living in a time of great change. However, we still have a long way to go to get to that future. And, of course, I could always be wrong. But hey, that’s what happens when you make predictions.  

Posted by: Rudy Shur

The first year in any business is a sink or swim time. In publishing, there are two first years: the planning year, when you find your distributor, raise your capital, set up your web site, and buy your titles; and the printing year, measured from the day that your first book arrives crated at the warehouse. I am in my planning year now. My print year starts in the Winter season, 2009.  

For my first print year, I was looking for books that fulfilled both my creative and my capitalistic vision. The books needed to be good, but they also needed to be marketable. I wanted to fall in love.

And I did.  

My first book is Brian Evenson’s LAST DAYS. Currently the MFA director at Brown, Brian is my perfect kind of writer—a writer who walks the line between the literary world and the genre world, a writer who knows a good story and who knows how to write it well. He has everything: craft, structure, character-driven plots. He’s an NEA recipient, as well as an O. Henry prize winner. He translates from French, he’s won the Horror Guild Award, and his last book, The Open Curtain, was picked as one of the ten best books of the year by Time Out New York. All that, plus he’s a great guy to have across the table at a meal. You can read more about him here: http://www.brianevenson.com.

I met Brian at BEA, when I was an editor at Dark Horse. He agreed to write an Aliens novel for Dark Horse, which was a bit of a triumph, I thought. LAST DAYS is a detective novel set in a secret society of self mutilators. The detective was kidnapped by members of the society, and is forced to solve a murder mystery for them. It’s a down the rabbit hole kind of story, where nothing is as it seems.

My second book is Jeff VanderMeer’s third novel set in the Ambergris world, FINCH. I met Jeff through Brian, and, though Jeff and I have never talked face to face, we carry on a lively email correspondence. Jeff pitched me a Predators story when I was an editor at Dark Horse. The resultant Predators novel is also a bit of a triumph.

Jeff is one of the most prolific writers I’ve met. He has ten (yes, ten!) books coming out next year. He’s widely considered to be one of America’s best fantasy writers, having won the World Fantasy Award, been translated into 17 languages, been featured on the NYT’s blog and Wired.com. He’s kind and intelligent, and also a gonzo marketer, with ideas coming out of his ears. Read more about him (and see some pretty cool art) at www.jeffvandermeer.com.

FINCH is a noir tale, set in a world where the gray caps, mysterious underground inhabitants, have taken over the city. Martial law is in place. Against a backdrop of oppression and rebellion, the hero, John Finch, must solve an impossible double murder while trying to make contact with the rebels. His girlfriend, Sintra, might or not be the leader of the resistance. Something is about to happen.  

Third up? Will Elliott’s PILO FAMILY CIRCUS. Talk about the genre / literary crossover… The book is about a troupe of demonic clowns working in a between-worlds circus. The currency that the circus runs on is bits of white crystal—or souls. The writing is smart, dry, and humorous. The book made me both look over my shoulder in fear, and laugh out loud. The word Elliott creates crackles with tension. He’s a fantastic writer, and to think that this is only his first book…

I bought the North American English rights to Will’s book from Quercus, his U.K. publisher. The book was originally printed in Australia, where it won the ABC prize. The novel also won the Aurealis Award, the Shadows Award, and the Ditmar Award. Elliott got a nod from the Sydney Herald as the best young novelist for 2007.  

And about the wovel? Last week, I found my wovelist. He’s young, he’s smart, he’s ready for a break out from the limited edition publishers. He’s Kealan Patrick Burke, and if you haven’t heard of him, you will.

His wovel, called The LIVING, is set in a world torn apart by civil war—the undead humans versus the living humans. The undead are not your typical zombies. They were created by genetic mutation, and they are the underclass of this new world. Our heroine, Madison, might be the last hope for peace in this world. The wovel follows Madison’s attempted escape from a city ravaged from the civil war.

In preparation for writing this wovel, Kealan sent me not a plot synopsis but a conflict synopsis. With the help of the readers, who will vote on the plot branch points as they come up, Madison might escape from the city alive. Or she might not… The readers get to decide. Read more about Kealan at his web site www.kealanpatrickburke.com.

I can’t announce my fourth print title yet, because the contract isn’t signed…

Know these authors? Have thoughts about the lineup? Comment here, or write me at Victoria@underlandpress.com.

And thanks for reading the blog. It’s been fun to write for ForeWord. Keep in touch by visiting www.underlandpress.com, and signing up for our newsletter.

Best of luck, and happy reading…

Victoria

Posted by: Victoria Blake

My hunt for a web writer continues. I’ve been knocking on doors, sending out emails, calling friends, pitching hard. I’ve gotten one writer lined up, but I’m looking for one more.

Here’s the idea:

I want to publish a Wovel, or web novel. The concept is to allow readers to participate in the formation of the plot arc, while leaving the writing, characterization, setting, description, and problem solving up to the author.  

Here’s how the Wovel works: The author posts an installment every week, say every Monday. Every post ends with a plot branch point. For example: the heroine, chased by zombies, reaches her car. The car a) starts, b) does not start. The readers get to decide. Every installment is between 1,000 and 3,000 words: long enough to get somewhere, but short enough to read Monday morning in your cubicle at work.

The post would go up on Monday, voting would be open until Wednesday, the writer would work on a draft until Friday, I would edit it, turn it around for final correx on Saturday, to repost it Sunday night.

Sound like a magazine or newspaper schedule?

It is. And that’s one of it’s strong points.

We wouldn’t be asking the readers to read fifteen or twenty pages of text. We’d be asking them to read short, and then vote. It could work out magically.

To my knowledge, this structure for writing on the web has never been tried before. There have been other variations, and each has had its own failings. Remember Steven King's much-publicized e-book The Plant? He kept it up for six chapters, before bowing out, saying that too many readers had jumped ship. The Wovel form, by contrast, gives the readers a stake in the book, providing them a reason to come back for more.

I’m incredibly excited by this idea. As with everything on the web, though, it takes a certain slantwise look to understand how it would work, and what the practical benefit would be.

For the author, the benefit would be a pure and simple readership build. The principle is that the more people read, the more people want to buy it. Interest equals monetization. It’s the same principle behind publishing for pittance in quarterlies.  

The author would come out of the Wovel term with a workable manuscript for possible reprint in the traditional book form. Some authors and agents say that publishers won’t want a manuscript that’s been online already. It seems to me, however, that the growing trend of print publishing blogs has well paved the way for a second print life for a Wovel. In fact, I would think that the print life would equal the online life, the two would build off each other. Heard of how well the Radiohead album In Rainbows is doing, despite being offered free online? What about the book Julie and Julia? It sold more than 150,000 in trade and cloth, and it was based off a blog.

For the publisher (Underland), the benefits would be to drive traffic to my site, to increase interest in my books, and to build my stable of authors. It’s a no-brainer for me, if the author and I can make it good, and if the readers keep coming back for more.

There’s a certain amount of experimentation that goes with this online territory. I don’t yet know what will happen with the Wovel, and there’s a possibility it will fall flat on its head. What do you think? Good idea? Bad idea? Scary idea? Interested in hearing more? I’m still working on my web site. I have a holding page up there now with an email capture. Sign up, and I’ll send you news as it comes. Underland Press is online at www.underlandpress.com. Or email me directly. I’m at victoria@underlandpress.com.

Next week is my last week as a guest blogger for ForeWord. I’m planning on announcing my first-year title list, plus announcing who my Wovel writer will be…

Posted by: Victoria Blake

A few months ago, I invited a group of my smartest web developer friends to sit at my big table, bought a case of Terminal Gravity, a pack of Oreos, and said “Go.”

They went.

Among the ideas for the web page: an RSS calendar that ticked through the worst things that happened on the day in question; an “eye” that hacked into the computer’s on-screen camera, re-routed the feed, and reflected the user back to himself; a room that the user could wander inside, picking up knives, opening doors, finding links, etc.

Impressive? Yes.
Overkill? Possibly.
Exciting? Absolutely.

My intent with Underland has always been to try to use the web not only to market and sell the books that Underland publishes, but to push the boundary of what is currently being done with text on the web. It occurred to me early on that print publishing is where music was in 1996: pre-Napster, ready for something big.

I don’t think that big thing is going to be the new digital readers. I’m in the camp that thinks paper and ink are pretty close to the best technology we need for books. But text has gone digital, and we haven’t yet figured out what to do with it. The issue might not be a readability issue. Finding and keeping online readers might require a new way, or at least a new style of writing.

Consider: A journalist writes an A1 story differently than a newspaper feature, differently than a long-form magazine feature, differently than a front-of-book news item. Each of those forms has its own requirements and limitations and opportunities. Indeed, professional journalists are extremely good at writing for all the various content platforms: newspapers, magazines, radio, TV. They have courses for this in their degree programs. They specialize.

Fiction writers? Fiction writers are lagging a bit behind. The majority of fictional prose I read online is originally written for print. Or it might have a second life in print. Or it wanted to be print, before it was put up on the web.

When I hear industry people talking about web publishing, I hear them talking about intellectual property rights and technology issues. I have never heard anybody talk about writing style and form issues. I recently had a writer send me a sample as a "audition" for an Underland Press web novel. The sentences were long and complicated, the paragraphs were long and complicated, and I couldn't find a story outside of the synopsis.

I don’t know if I’m right about this, but it seems that in order for prose to be successful online the sentences would have to be shorter, the story more obvious (ie less subtle), and the paragraphs would have to move more quickly. Chapters would have to be shorter, too. Maybe even short enough to read in the cubical at work, with the back turned to the hallway and the finger on the minimize button…

You know. Like blogs.

I’m going to keep thinking about this problem. I’m going to talk to the writers I know. I’m going to talk to the lawyers. I’m going to talk to my web guys. I might not be the one to crack the problem, but I’m in the generation of publishers who will.  

As before, and as always, I welcome your comments. Unlike print journalism, the blog gives us a way to talk back. I love that, though it might force me to develop a thicker skin.

Posted by: Victoria Blake

Traveling to a new location for vacation (and sometimes business) can be an exciting event and generally a lot of planning goes into the effort so you make the best use of your time. Often building your ideal itinerary may necessitate the purchase of several travel guides (or in my case diligent note taking in the cafe at BN) and I can only imagine that this situation is even more relevant if you travel as a family. Having had a great time - and probably seeing only half of what you thought you would - you leave the travel guides behind in the hotel room because they don’t fit in the bags.

What if you were able to build a specific guide before you left that you could either print out before or carry with you as an electronic e-book? This is an idea that Penguin publishing unit DK are experimenting with which allows users to select content from their travel guides and build their own guide. I found the site a little clunky but the idea is sound and as an electronic platform DK could be in a position to offer far more content than appears in their DK travel books. If Penguin has other travel related content this could also be integrated with the DK travel content to create a distinct product that perhaps has more breadth than a user could get other than buying multiple books.

Travel (book) related websites are (or have the potential to) generating decent advertising revenues. Since a travel guide is a glorified directory it will not be long until the web is the primary mode of distribution for this content as has been the case with traditional data driven directories (i.e. booksinprint). As e-products, the integration with content from other publishers, map applications, photos, video and Podcasting is not far away. For example, I want to visit Boston and I build a travel book that includes a history and background information on Boston, a walking tour of North Boston, a satellite map, restaurant recommendations in and around the walk and after lunch I want to go to the Museum of Fine Arts where I buy admission tickets, add the highlights of the collection tour and download the MP3 audio tour. Ultimately, I want this 'packaged' so that I can either print it out and/or retain as an e-book or e-collection for future use.

But wait a minute, does the interaction end there? Conceivably, I will be taking pictures and forging my own impressions about the visit. And perhaps I want to include experiential things, like what I had for lunch and whether I liked it. So the publishing platform I use to create my travel book of Boston should be something I can edit outside the confines of the publisher-supplied content. As such the DK application is not so functional but there are options elsewhere that are starting to appear - and in the future there maybe nothing to stop DK from adding this functionality.

One such application has been developed by SharedBook, a software company in lower Manhattan. Sharedbook works with content owners who want to extend their relationship with their customers and enable them to self-select content and build their own book and in the process adding their own content. SharedBook works with customers who may not seem like publishers such as Regent Cruises and Legacy.com, but the functionality is similar to what I describe above. Clients of Regent cruises are able to select some core content to create their book while also adding their own specific content. So they can add pictures, annotations or full length essays on their cruise experience. There are a surprising number of clients who take advantage of this program since it serves as a high quality memento of their journey.

Sharedbook has a relatively easy to implement solution and their model has enabled 'non-publishers' to treat as 'content' assets that otherwise would remain one-dimensional as marketing or promotional material. In the case of traditional publishers, the Sharedbook platform can allow publishers to engage their customers directly and perhaps with a stronger link because the publishers content goes along with the customers positive experience. Obviously, customers pay for the privilege of creating their unique books but the prices are both reasonable and set by the content owner.

Back to my Boston example and using a SharedBook I could have a coffee table book produced with all the elements I selected before I left, those I added during my trip and the those I added after I return home. Once home I could scan the MFA ticket stub, the restaurant menu and add photos with annotations. Then I have my own memento of my trip. Models such as those I have described above will become more prevalent as publishers see the value in opening up their content repositories and allowing consumers to interact with their content. It is a trend worth following.

Posted by: Michael Cairns, Information Media Partners